The 2021 Midyear Annual Forecast To Be Released on June 14th!
A message from Geopath

by Scott Fiaschetti 11. June 2021 Uncategorized 0

As announced previously, Geopath will be releasing a midyear annual forecast for the first time in the organization’s history on Monday, June 14th. Geopath is truly excited for the release of our midyear forecast and what the future holds for the data available to our members – and we hope the OOH industry is as well!

Since the release is a major milestone for both Geopath and the Out of Home industry, we want to ensure our members are updated on what to expect, and have developed a set of FAQs to help our members prepare for the coming release.

What is the midyear annual forecast?
Geopath’s 2021 forecast (released January 4th, 2021) was built upon expectations that were held at the end of 2020. The first was that the vaccine rollout would be readily available for the full population in Q3, and second, that once vaccines were widely available, travel activity in each market would see a return toward pre-COVID levels by the end of the year, continuing to rebound into 2022.

However, the acceleration of the vaccination rollout has given confidence to much of the population to engage in familiar activities again. We are already seeing mobility within the population that is at or above pre-COVID levels across many markets, as people get out of home more often and return from this “new normal.”

As a result, Geopath will be releasing a midyear annual forecast to account for these changes.

When will the midyear annual forecast be available?
As noted above, the midyear annual forecast will be available in the API and Insights Suite on Monday, June 14th. As with all of Geopath’s previous forecasts, this will also be a 12-month forecast, but will reflect the expected audience delivery from June 2021 through May 2022.

In order to give our members time to migrate their proprietary systems, the 2021 midyear release will become the default forecast of the industry on Monday, June 21st. On that date, the 2021 midyear metrics should be used by members for planning and transactional purposes.

Will the previous 2021 annual forecast still be available?
Yes. While the January 2021-December 2021 annual forecast will still be accessible in the API and Insights Suite to review previously developed plans, these data should only be used for historical purposes as they will no longer be valid for new transactional purposes once the midyear forecast is released.

Which annual forecast should I use?
While each project is different, Geopath suggests the following guidelines for working with the new midyear forecast.

For plans that are currently inflight with end dates after June 2021, we recommend that members use the midyear annual forecast to understand any impact to the project’s goals.

As always, Geopath members should clearly disclose which data vintage is being used when sharing Geopath Audience Data with other members or clients. If this not provided, we recommend asking to ensure that the appropriate forecast was used.

What audiences will be available?
On June 14th, audience delivery metrics for 8,000+ demographic and consumer profile audiences will be available in the API. The Insights Suite will have 2,700+ demographic audiences available for all roadside media (including street furniture), and place-based media (excluding transit station media and airports) on June 14th, with the remaining consumer segments available on June 21st. The 2021 transit forecast (scheduled fleet and station media) will be released after committee review.

Please note, that the newly added consumer profiles will not be available in the January 2021 – December 2021 forecast as this forecast is no longer supported. Additionally, updates to inventory will only be reflected in the midyear annual forecast (June 2021 – May 2022) moving forward.

How can I access the 2021 midyear annual forecast?
The midyear forecast will be available in both the API and the Insights Suite. To access via the Insights Suite, select ‘Data Sources’ and choose “Forecast Jun 2021-May 2022” in either the Explore or Workspace module. On June 21st, this will become the default data source in both the API and Insights Suite. Additional documentation on how to access the 2021 midyear annual forecast is also available in the API Developer portal.

Will the Impression Variation Dashboard be updated with the midyear annual forecast?
Yes. The Impression Variation Dashboard will be updated with the 2021 midyear annual forecast on Monday, June 21st.

What updates to reach and frequency will be included in the midyear release?
The midyear annual forecast will include enhancements to the reach and frequency methods. These enhancements will include a more refined classification of the maximum reachable audience for out-of-home media and an improved method for quantifying the duplication across place-based and roadside media. These updates will address the higher-than-expected reach for some packages using the 2021 audience data.

With the increased precision of reach and frequency, users may observe changes in reported reach for some formats. For example, inventory on local roadways may have a lower maximum reachable audience because they draw audience from a smaller area of the marketplace resulting in lower reach and higher frequency.

Will additional annual forecasts be released this year?
Yes. While the midyear annual forecast release is a first for Geopath and the OOH industry, it directly aligns with Geopath’s goal of introducing increasingly granular forecasts released more often, reflecting changes in the marketplace as they happen. More frequent data releases also will enable Geopath to quickly deploy new and enhanced capabilities on a regular basis.

As the impact of COVID-19 continues to evolve, Geopath will periodically release updated forecasts. The first update will be the midyear release in June followed by another update later this year in October.

The end goal of this migration, ultimately to a monthly rolling forecast, will provide the industry with a continually recalibrated forecast using the most current observed data and allow us to incorporate the impact of vaccination rollouts and expose any unique seasonality.

Additional Support
Geopath will be conducting a webinar on June 24th at 2:00pm ET to support the launch of the midyear annual forecast release. During the session, Dylan Mabin and Scott Fiaschetti will discuss how the midyear forecast was developed and provide insight on what to expect as members begin to use these data. The session will also provide suggested guidelines on how to use the forecast and a review of where to access these audience metrics in the Insights Suite.

You can register for the session by clicking on the link below.

We will also be issuing an FAQ document by June 30th based on the questions above as well as any additional questions we receive during the webinar.

Contact Us!
We hope this helps to answer many of the questions our members may have related to the upcoming midyear annual forecast release.

We will continue to update the industry with more information on the scheduled midyear annual forecast release. In the meantime, please feel free to reach out directly [email protected] with any additional questions.