As announced last month, Geopath will be releasing a midyear annual forecast for the first time in the organization’s history. Since this will be a major milestone for Geopath, and the industry, we want to ensure our members are updated on what to expect over the next few weeks.
Why is Geopath releasing a midyear annual forecast?
Geopath’s 2021 forecast (released January 4th, 2021) was built upon expectations that were held at the end of 2020. The first was that the vaccine rollout would be readily available for the full population in Q3 and second, that once vaccines were widely available, activity in each market that would see a return toward pre-covid levels by the end of the year and continue that rebound into 2022.
The success of the vaccination rollout has given confidence to much of the population to engage in familiar activities again. We are seeing mobility within the population that is at or above pre-COVID levels across most markets as people get out of home more often and return from this “new normal.”
As a result, Geopath will be releasing a midyear annual forecast to account for these changes.
When will the midyear annual forecast be available?
The midyear annual forecast will be available in the API and Insights Suite on Monday, June 14th. As with all of our previous forecasts, this will also be a 12-month forecast, but will reflect the expected audience delivery from June 2021 through May 2022.
In order to give our members time to migrate their proprietary systems, the 2021 midyear release will become the default forecast of the industry on Monday, June 22nd. On that date, the 2021 midyear metrics should be used by members for planning and transactional purposes.
While the January 2021-December 2021 annual forecast will still be accessible in the API and Insights Suite, these data should only be used for historical purposes as they will no longer be valid for transactional purposes once the new midyear forecast is released.
What audiences will be available?
On June 14th, audience delivery metrics for 8,000+ demographic and consumer profile audiences will be available in the API and the Insights Suite for all roadside media (including street furniture), and place-based media (excluding transit station media). The 2021 transit forecast (scheduled fleet and station media) will be released after committee review.
Please note, that the newly added consumer profiles will not be available in the January 2021 – December 2021 forecast as this forecast is no longer supported. Additionally, updates to inventory will only be reflected in the midyear annual forecast (June 2021 – May 2022) moving forward.
How can I access the 2021 midyear annual forecast?
The midyear forecast will be available in both the API and the Insights Suite. To access via the Insights Suite, select Data Sources and choose “Forecast Jun 2021-May 2022” in either the Explore or Workspace module. On June 22nd, this will become the default data source in both the API and Insights Suite. Prior to June 14th, there will also be additional documentation on how to access the 2021 midyear annual forecast in the API developer portal.
What updates to reach and frequency will be included in the midyear release?
The midyear annual forecast will include enhancements to the reach and frequency methods. These enhancements will include a more refined classification of the reachable population for out-of-home media and an improved method for quantifying the duplication across place-based and roadside media. These updates will address the higher-than-expected reach ceilings for some packages using the 2021 audience data.
Will additional annual forecasts be released this year?
As the impact of COVID-19 continues to evolve, Geopath will periodically release updated forecasts. The first update will be the midyear release in June followed by another update in October of 2021.
While the midyear annual forecast release is a first for Geopath and the OOH industry, it directly aligns with Geopath’s goal of introducing more granular forecasts released more often, reflecting changes in the marketplace as they happen. More frequent data releases also will enable Geopath to quickly deploy new and enhanced capabilities more often.
The migration, ultimately to a monthly rolling forecast, will provide the industry with a continually recalibrated forecast using the most current observed data and allow us to incorporate the impact of vaccination rollouts and expose any unique seasonality.
We hope this helps to answer many of the questions our members may have related to the upcoming midyear annual forecast release. Geopath is truly excited for the release of our midyear forecast and what the future holds for the data available to our members – and we hope the OOH industry is as well.
We will continue to update the industry with more information on the scheduled midyear annual forecast release. In the meantime, please feel free to reach out directly geekOUT@geopath.org with any additional questions.